Key Medical Procedure Trends 1H 2023 

In 2022, there were over 140 million distinct individuals with office-based outpatient visit claims, a decrease of approximately 1.2 million (-0.9%) compared to 2021. This decline is primarily due to a drop in new patient interactions. 

For outpatient office visits in the first half of 2023, there has been a rebound in patient volumes compared to the same period in 2022. Both new and existing patient traffic increased by 3% and 5%, respectively. When adding preventative visits to the analysis, there is a 2% increase for the same study periods. However, the growth in emergency department visits has contracted from +5% (1H 2022) to +3% (1H 2023). 

Looking specifically at patient mammogram traffic, there has been a consistent increase of 11% in the number of women being screened. With over 13 million patients in 1H 2023, this represents a +5% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) since 1H 2021. This trend is expected to lead to improved long-term health outcomes through early detection. In contrast, the number of patients undergoing a cardio stress test increased by 6% in 1H 2023 compared to 1H 2022 but still lags behind, resulting in a -1% CAGR when compared to 1H 2021. 

Similarly, patients receiving a pacemaker procedure have rebounded, growing by 5% in 1H 2023 compared to the previous year, but a slight gap remains with a -0.4% CAGR compared to 1H 2021. 

Considering the demographics of the US population, particularly as the youngest baby boomers approach 60 years of age, an increase in orthopedic patient volume is expected, especially in areas like hip and knee replacements. Analyzing commercial and Medicare claims in 2022, approximately 349,000 and 667,000 patients underwent hip or knee procedures. Interestingly, despite the older patient population for these procedures, commercial/employer payers still account for 68% of hip claims and 60% of knee claims, with Medicare covering 26% and 37% of claims respectively. 

Looking at the trend of these procedures in the first half of 2023 compared to 1H 2022, hip replacements increased by 8%, while knee replacements saw a growth of 12%. Notably, January 2023 stood out with a 29% growth in knee procedures compared to the same period the previous year, accounting for 37% of the total increase in 1H 2023. 

These trends in healthcare utilization reflect the evolving dynamics of patient interactions and procedures, with potential implications for healthcare providers and payers in the coming years.