Behavioral Trends Driving the Healthcare Market: 1H 2023

Diagnosis Trends

Despite the impact of COVID-19 extending far beyond our daily lives over the past few years, it seems that life is now gradually returning to its usual rhythm. Reviewing medical claims data, we see Z20 contact with and exposure to communicable disease (aka COVID) drop from the top spot but still maintain a top ten ranking.  Returning to the pre-COVID forefront of diagnosed diseases are ICD10 codes I10 Hypertension, E78 Hyperlipdemia, and E11 Type 2 Diabetes.

Prescribing Trends

Turning our attention to prescribing trends, a consistent pattern has emerged over time with psychotherapeutic drugs consistently holding the top spot as the most prescribed class in the US. This class encompasses just over 9% of patients who receive prescriptions. From a prescription perspective, psychotherapeutics account for 13% of NRx and 12.6% of TRx volume.

While TRx volume remains stable from the second half of 2022 to the first half of 2023, NRxs have seen growth of +3.6%, parallel to the overall patient change of +3.5%. This growth is largely driven by a 7.8% increase in new patient starts (NBRx12months). Within the USC2 psychotherapeutic class, two USC4s, namely 64340-SSRI (Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitor) and 64500-ANALEPTICS, account for a significant 45% of patient and TRx volume.

Looking beyond psychotherapeutics, vascular agents, antihyperlipidemics, and diabetic therapies occupy the next three positions, contributing significantly to the overall TRx volume in the US prescription market. From the perspective of patient volume, therapeutic vascular agents retain their second place standing, while antihyperlipidemic agents have dropped two places. In their stead, anti-infectives and respiratory therapies have risen to the third and fourth spots.

From a Branded Perspective

Even with over 270 million individuals in the US having completed their COVID-19 vaccinations, Bival vaccines for ages 12 and up, as well as 18 years and up, secure positions within the top 25 when ranked based on patient counts. The COVID treatment Paxlovid fares even better, ranking third. As anticipated given the prevailing diagnoses, Eliquis and Ozempic hold the first and second positions on the list.

Transitioning from a patient-focused perspective to TRx, the top two positions remain unaltered. However, Vyvanse takes the third spot, while Paxlovid understandably slips to the 16th position. This shift is largely attributed to the prescribing trends within the ADHD market, where Vyvanse ascends to the top spot in terms of NRx, with Ozempic and Eliquis trading places at the pinnacle of the table. Notably, while many of the top 25 brands based on prescriptions (NRx or TRx) align with the prevalent diagnoses, the widely recognized weight loss drug Wegovy appears in the 12th and 16th positions, respectively.

In summation, the analysis of prescription trends in the first half of 2023 offers captivating insights into the ever-evolving healthcare landscape. While the gradual normalization post-COVID is apparent, the pandemic's reverberations continue to make their presence felt. The endurance of COVID-related ICD10 codes serves as a testament to its lasting impact on diagnosis trends. Diseases like hypertension and type 2 diabetes stand firm as significant challenges faced by the US healthcare system.

Shifting our focus to prescribing trends, the consistent dominance of psychotherapeutic drugs underscores their paramount importance in addressing mental health concerns, both among new patients and those already receiving treatment. The upsurge in new patients signals an increasing willingness to seek and embrace treatment.

Beyond the realm of psychotherapeutics, the interplay of vascular agents, antihyperlipidemics, and diabetic therapies shapes the therapeutic landscape. These classes wield considerable influence in TRx volume, showcasing the multifaceted nature of healthcare requirements. While patient volume and TRx volume may portray slightly divergent images, the intricacies of therapeutic choices become pronounced.

When delving into branded products, the notable presence of Bival and Paxlovid underscores the ongoing relevance of post-pandemic COVID treatments and vaccines. Eliquis and Ozempic's dominance aligns seamlessly with the prevalent diagnoses, and Vyvanse’s rise signifies its significance in ADHD treatment.

In conclusion, the prescription trends of 1H 2023 underscore the resilience of healthcare systems as they’ve adapted to persistent challenges and emerging therapeutic demands. These trends illuminate the intricate fabric of patient care, interweaving diagnoses, treatments, and pharmaceutical decisions. As the medical landscape continues its evolution, these insights stand as invaluable beacons for healthcare stakeholders navigating the path ahead.